Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003

ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST
24 HR...AND THE STORM IS RESPONDING.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM...KATE NOW HAS AN EXCELLENT BANDING PATTERN WITH A
FORMATIVE EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND BASED ON THAT AND THE DEVELOPING EYE THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/10.  KATE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 30N BETWEEN 38W-48W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD
STEER KATE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72
HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THINGS GET A LITTLE
NEBULOUS AFTER 72 HR AS KATE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.  MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. 
HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A SECOND VORTEX THAT THE MODEL DEVELOPS
SOUTHEAST OF KATE.  THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS DUBIOUS AT THIS
TIME...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. 
OVERALL...THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE
TO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN
THAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE DOES
NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER 25-26C SSTS
WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR...SO
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 32.2N  40.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W    65 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.5N  44.3W    70 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.2N  46.8W    75 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  49.1W    75 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.5N  52.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 32.5N  55.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    65 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC