ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003 KATE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED PRIMARILY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF KATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE KATE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE CLOSELY. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING KATE OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0300Z 32.5N 37.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/1200Z 32.5N 39.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0000Z 32.2N 41.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 02/1200Z 32.0N 43.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 45.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 04/0000Z 32.5N 49.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 05/0000Z 33.5N 52.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 06/0000Z 35.5N 54.5W 60 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC