ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003 KATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND ALSO DUE TO THE SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD MOTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE UPPER DIFFLENCE AND DRY AIR INTRUSION...MORE LIKE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAN A TRADITIONAL CDO. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF KATE AT THIS TIME IS BECOMING LESS TROPICAL AS THERE IS AN APPARENT FRONTAL ROPE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE CENTER ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A DRY SLOT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...THESE FEATURES SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS WEST BECOMES LESS INVOLVED IN KATES CIRCULATION. A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PERSISTS...IN FACT A CLEAR/WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE FROM 1400Z...BUT THIS DOES NOT INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE AN EYE...IT COULD BE KATES MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REAMINS 55 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5 FROM SAB...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFWA...AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN IR IMAGERY ARE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE INTESITY IS NOT BEING LOWERED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE TALL CONVECTION ARE KEEPING THE INTENSITY UP...AND JUST IN CASE THAT REALLY IS AN EYE POPPING OUT NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05...EVEN THOUGH THE PAST SIX HOUR MOTION IS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TODAY DUE TO A BUILDING WARM CORE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NR 32N 43W. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SOUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS... DISCARDING CLIPER...LBAR...AND THE UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE STORMS CURRENT FORWARD MOTION AND THE CHOSEN MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH KATE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...NO WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN TENACIOUS THUS FAR AND REMAINS OVR SSTS AT OR ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER ROTH/ORRISON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 32.0N 35.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 32.4N 36.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.4N 37.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 32.4N 39.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 32.4N 41.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 32.7N 45.9W 70 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 33.9N 49.5W 70 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 36.1N 51.6W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC