Hurricane KATE

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003
 
KATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND ALSO
DUE TO THE SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD MOTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE UPPER DIFFLENCE AND DRY AIR
INTRUSION...MORE LIKE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAN A
TRADITIONAL CDO. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF KATE AT THIS TIME IS
BECOMING LESS TROPICAL AS THERE IS AN APPARENT FRONTAL ROPE
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE CENTER ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A DRY SLOT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...THESE FEATURES SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
TIME AS THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS WEST BECOMES LESS INVOLVED IN
KATES CIRCULATION. A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PERSISTS...IN
FACT A CLEAR/WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGE FROM 1400Z...BUT THIS DOES NOT INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE AN
EYE...IT COULD BE KATES MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REAMINS 55 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5 FROM
SAB...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFWA...AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. COOLING CLOUD TOPS
SEEN IN IR IMAGERY ARE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE INTESITY IS NOT
BEING LOWERED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT
DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE TALL CONVECTION ARE KEEPING THE INTENSITY
UP...AND JUST IN CASE THAT REALLY IS AN EYE POPPING OUT NEAR THE
CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05...EVEN THOUGH THE PAST SIX
HOUR MOTION IS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MANY OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TODAY DUE TO A
BUILDING WARM CORE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BINARY
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NR 32N 43W.  THIS FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE SOUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS...
DISCARDING CLIPER...LBAR...AND THE UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO
THE STORMS CURRENT FORWARD MOTION AND THE CHOSEN MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
ALTHOUGH KATE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...NO WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN TENACIOUS THUS FAR AND REMAINS OVR
SSTS AT OR ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN WHICH WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER ROTH/ORRISON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 32.0N  35.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 32.4N  36.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.4N  37.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 32.4N  39.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 32.4N  41.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 32.7N  45.9W    70 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 33.9N  49.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 36.1N  51.6W    70 KT
 
 
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