ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KATE IS NOW TUCKED BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY FURTHER SUPPORT SOME LIMITED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT KATE IS NOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH AT 9 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT INTO TWO SCHOOLS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL..AND UKMET INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVEN EAST-NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAPTURED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE SECOND SCHOOL OF GUIDANCE CONSISTS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH BOTH BUILD A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KATE BY DAY THREE AND FORCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. CONTINUING WITH EARLIER REASONING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RE CURVE SOUTH OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE FIRST 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOTION AND INDICATES A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY DAY FIVE. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF KATE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE OVER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DECAY BEYOND THAT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFDL CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM TO 90 KT BY DAY THREE. GIVEN THAT KATE HAS DEEPENED IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES CALL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING INITIALLY WITH WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE FURTHER. THE FORECAST DOES ALLOW FOR SOME RE INTENSIFICATION BY DAY FIVE SHOULD A COHERENT WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL EXIST. FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 23.4N 44.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 24.7N 44.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 26.1N 43.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 27.5N 42.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 28.5N 40.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 30.0N 38.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 38.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 31.5N 39.0W 50 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC