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Tropical Storm KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS IN KATE
ARE AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION
OF T3.0 FROM TAFB.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10...ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
THE MOTION MAY BE SLOWING FURTHER.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS
COMPLICATED.  IN THE SHORT RUN...KATE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE
UNDERNEATH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. 
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX INTERACTION OR
MERGER OF KATE WITH THIS LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE
RESULTANT SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE LARGE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 37N/53W.  I AM NOT SURE WHAT RESULTS
WILL BE ENTIRELY TROPICAL.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAKES KATE A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...UNDER 27 KT
OF SHEAR...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO FIND SOME MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN
THESE OPTIONS.  WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...BUT ALLOWS FOR
REINTENSIFICATION FOLLOWING THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 22.4N  44.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N  45.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 25.8N  44.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 27.4N  43.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 29.0N  42.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  40.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/0000Z 31.5N  40.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  42.0W    55 KT
 
 
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