Tropical Storm KATE

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
THE CYCLONE HAS FINALLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS THE SMALL FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER EXPANDED AND FILLED THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSENSUS IN THE DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA OF 3.0 AND CI-NUMBERS OF 2.5 PUSH THE
INTENSITY INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ALTOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CALLED FOR NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
HAS ALTERED THAT LOGIC. HOWEVER...IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO DEBATE
30 KT VERSUS 35 KT CYCLONE INTENSITY IN SITUATIONS WHERE IN SITU
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE UNAVAILABLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z NOGAPS AND GFS RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN MOVING KATE WESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NUDGES
IN THIS DIRECTION.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE CYCLONE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS
THE CYCLONE CENTER WAS EXPOSED...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PRESENT THIS
MORNING HAS APPEARED TO LESSEN A LITTLE BIT AND HAS ALLOWED THE
CONVECTION TO FLARE UP.  THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE GFS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIPS STRENGTHENING TREND. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 21.5N  44.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  44.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 26.4N  44.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N  43.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 29.1N  42.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 30.6N  40.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    55 KT
 
 
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