Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
THE CYCLONE HAS FINALLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS THE SMALL FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER EXPANDED AND FILLED THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSENSUS IN THE DATA
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA OF 3.0 AND CI-NUMBERS OF 2.5 PUSH THE
INTENSITY INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ALTOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CALLED FOR NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
HAS ALTERED THAT LOGIC. HOWEVER...IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO DEBATE
30 KT VERSUS 35 KT CYCLONE INTENSITY IN SITUATIONS WHERE IN SITU
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE UNAVAILABLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z NOGAPS AND GFS RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT IN MOVING KATE WESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NUDGES
IN THIS DIRECTION.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE CYCLONE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS
THE CYCLONE CENTER WAS EXPOSED...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PRESENT THIS
MORNING HAS APPEARED TO LESSEN A LITTLE BIT AND HAS ALLOWED THE
CONVECTION TO FLARE UP.  THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND 48
HOURS...THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE GFS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIPS STRENGTHENING TREND. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA/SISKO
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 21.5N  44.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  44.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 26.4N  44.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N  43.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     30/1800Z 29.1N  42.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 30.6N  40.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    55 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC