Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 2017Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A
2106Z SSMI WERE USEFUL IN INTERPRETING THE INITIAL POSITION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...30 KT
FROM AFWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTER AND TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3
DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF THE POORLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONSOLIDATES FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHEAR
MAY HAVE LESS OF AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE.

ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 305/13. T.D. SIXTEEN SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS SHOULD BEGIN. ALL LARGE SCALE
MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST EXTEND OF A MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED WEST OF
THE AZORES BY DAY 3 WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET LOSE THE SYSTEM
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS BEYOND THAT POINT MERGING WITH THE BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM. THE GFS TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO VIGOROUSLY INTERACT WITH
A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE BAMS.

 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 12.6N  39.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N  41.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.1N  43.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.3N  45.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  47.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  49.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N  50.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N  51.0W    55 KT
 
 
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