ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003 THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 100 N MI OF THE ADVISORY LOCATION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LOW LATITUDES. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RESULTING IN EITHER WEAKENING OR A STEADY STATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A RATHER LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES WEST WILL PROBABLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AT 45 DEGREES WEST. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT COULD CONTINUE WESTWARD A LITTLE LONGER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.7N 38.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 12.5N 40.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 13.8N 42.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.0N 45.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 47.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 18.5N 50.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 52.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 21.5N 53.5W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC