Hurricane JUAN

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HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/28 AND THE MOTION FOR THE PAST
FEW HOURS IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS.  THE TRACK FORECAST
SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES ACCELERATING JUAN NORTHWARD.  JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUICKLY ABSORBED BY THIS APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.
 
THE 03Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KT.  THE CENTER PASSED OVER
CANADIAN DATA BUOY 44142 BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. THE BUOY WIND WENT
FROM 090/54 KT AT 23Z TO 210/37 KT AT 00Z AND THE PRESSURE WENT
FROM 981 TO 975 MB.  THE BOUY WIND SPEED BETWEEN THE TWO HOURS
COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 KNOTS.  THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED
40 FT WAVES.  OVER VERY COLD WATER...JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
QUICKLY WEAKEN...BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY AROUND 03Z.
 
WIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.
INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:
 
WWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0300Z 44.5N  63.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  63.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     30/0000Z 58.0N  60.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1200Z 65.0N  55.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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