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Hurricane JUAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
JUAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT LOOKS AT ITS
BEST SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS RAGGED...IT IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. IN FACT...LATEST SSMI PASS SHOWS A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUGGESTING THE THE EYEWALL IS CLOSED.  IN ADDITION...
THERE ARE WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. GIVING
THE CURRRENT STRUCTURE AND PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOLER
WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL THAT HAS BEEN CORRECTLY
INTENSIFYING THE HURRICANE. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 36 HOURS.
 
JUAN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
345 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD
BECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE
TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN SHOULD BE BRINGING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUNA AND
GUNS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 35.3N  63.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 37.5N  63.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 40.5N  64.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  64.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 52.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC