ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PRIMARILY IN A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN INTERMETTENT. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES JUAN A 92-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND SHIPS SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRAIGHTENING. AS USUAL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF JUAN WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST KEEPING JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SYSTEM CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 33.0N 62.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 34.3N 62.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 36.5N 63.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 39.5N 63.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 42.5N 63.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 54.0N 60.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC