ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003 HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT JUAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BUT THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS NOT VERY DEEP. IN GENERAL...THIS PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. LASTEST AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA/NESDIS INDICATE A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 985 MB AND 66-KNOT WINDS AND THE LATEST AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE IS 986 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS MAKING JUAN A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGHTENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL MOVE JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. AS USUAL...THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TO DETERMINE IF JUAN WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. HOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 32.2N 62.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 33.7N 62.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 35.5N 63.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 37.5N 63.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 28/1200Z 40.0N 64.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 29/1200Z 50.0N 61.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC