ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003 THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING VERY FEW... IF ANY... CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS CANNOT BE DERIVED. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTH. RECENT SSMI OVERPASSES SHOW NO INDICATION OF A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KNOT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY. INFRARED FIXES ARE WIDELY DISTRIBUTED ABOUT AN ELONGATED CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/10. DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS LOSE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EVEN EXISTS NOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION...THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION AND THE SUB-26C SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL DISSIPATION. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.1N 25.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.0N 25.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.7N 26.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 22.8N 27.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC