ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. BECAUSE IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A SHIP REPORT LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE IS A WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE... THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 13.4N 24.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.5N 25.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 16.0N 26.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 18.2N 27.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.0N 29.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 23.5N 32.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 27.0N 34.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 30.0N 36.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC