ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 52 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003 RADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT ISABEL IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS INNER CORE AND THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KNOTS. A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 2 DAYS OR LESS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISHED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 20 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 37.7N 78.0W 55 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 19/1200Z 40.5N 79.5W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/0000Z 46.5N 79.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 20/1200Z 53.0N 79.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/0000Z 58.5N 75.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 22/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC