ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003 ISABEL MADE LANDFALL ON THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DRUM INLET...BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE ISLAND...NEAR 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 85 KT. A GPS DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 83 KT ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE LANDFALL A FEW MILES FROM CAPE HATTERAS IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT AT 1707Z IN THE SAME AREA...AND ANOTHER MEASUREMENT OF 82 KT WAS REPORTED ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 118 KT. THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS WERE CONFIRMED BY GROUND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS. A LARGE NUMBER OF DROPSONDES IN ISABEL INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 70% OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL VALUES OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND THIS ALSO YIELDS ABOUT 83 KT FOR A PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE. ISABEL CONTINUES INLAND...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHARPENING UP OF THE EYEWALL AFTER LANDFALL...THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING. GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE AND THE LARGE AND STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT...THE FORECAST DECREASE OF WIND IS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PATH OF ISABEL. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED AFTER 48 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 36.2N 77.1W 80 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 78.6W 55 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 19/1800Z 43.5N 79.7W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 20/0600Z 49.5N 79.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/1800Z 55.5N 76.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC