Hurricane ISABEL
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HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
THE LARGE EYEWALL OF ISABEL IS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. ALTHOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
SUBSTATIALLY LOWER...ABOUT 85 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE
FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON
HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN
AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PATH OF ISABEL.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED
AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 34.4N 75.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 77.3W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 19/1200Z 39.7N 78.7W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 20/0000Z 44.5N 78.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 20/1200Z 50.5N 77.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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