ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003 RECENT RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 111 AND 109 KNOTS ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING A FAVORABLE EFFECT ON INTENSIFICATION ...PERHAPS FROM BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OR FROM AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ANY CASE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISABEL IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR 48 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT HEADING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 28.5N 71.7W 95 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 29.7N 72.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 31.7N 73.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 34.0N 75.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 36.6N 77.5W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 78.5W 40 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/0000Z 54.0N 73.5W 30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0000Z 59.0N 56.0W 30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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