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Hurricane ISABEL


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003
 
RECENT RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 111 AND 109 KNOTS ARE THE BASIS
FOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL
GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE
LANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING A FAVORABLE EFFECT ON INTENSIFICATION
...PERHAPS FROM BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OR FROM AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW
PATTERN.  IN ANY CASE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING IS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ISABEL IS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
FOR 48 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS
COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT
HEADING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 28.5N  71.7W    95 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 29.7N  72.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 31.7N  73.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 34.0N  75.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  78.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 54.0N  73.5W    30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/0000Z 59.0N  56.0W    30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC