ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003 THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. BASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS. FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS. NOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5 DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 21.7N 57.0W 140 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 22.0N 58.4W 130 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 60.5W 135 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 23.0N 62.5W 130 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 115 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 27.5N 74.0W 110 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC