ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2003 ISABEL LOOKS LIKE IT IS ABOUT TO BEGIN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. AN AMSU MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z SHOWED THREE-FOURTHS OF AN OUTER EYEWALL. AT 2313Z...AN SSMI PASS SHOWED TWO CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...WITH SOME EROSION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE INNER EYEWALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY WHICH ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTH EYEWALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EYE AND MOAT BETWEEN THE TWO EYEWALLS CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE RAW RETURNED SIGNAL FROM THE QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 2116Z. WHAT THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS IS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE INNER EYEWALL COLLAPSES...BUT THEN COULD REINTENSIFY AFTER THAT AS THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS. WE DO NOT NORMALLY TRY TO INCLUDE THESE KINDS OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE THIS REPLACEMENT SEEMS TO BE UNDERWAY I HAVE TAKEN A SHOT AT IT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT SST ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE COOL WAKE OF FABIAN IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND MAY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON ISABEL. A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE LEFT IS OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE LONG-TERM MOTION REMAINS 280/8. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC THINKING...SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BEYOND THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 21.6N 56.1W 140 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 21.9N 57.5W 130 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 22.3N 59.4W 135 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 22.7N 61.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 23.3N 63.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 24.5N 66.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 25.5N 69.5W 115 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 26.5N 72.5W 110 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC