ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003 ISABEL IS MORE SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT HAS A TEXTBOOK APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE WELL-DEFINED 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AVERAGE ABOUT 6.7 GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES. ISABEL SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 KT AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ISABEL NEARS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC TRACK IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND MORE TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS IN THE STEERING OF ISABEL APPEAR TO BE THE RIDGE NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HANDLES THESE FEATURES. SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW SHOW THE TROUGH AS THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE...THEN THE HURRICANE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 21.4N 54.5W 130 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 56.0W 130 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 21.8N 58.0W 130 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.2N 60.0W 125 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 22.8N 61.9W 120 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 65.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 26.5N 72.0W 115 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC