ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003 ...CORRECTION FOR EASTERLY FLOW INSTEAD OF WESTERLY FLOW THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXCELLENT WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT ISABEL CONTINUES TO HAVE TWO WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNELS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...ISABEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS. ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FORCING ISABEL TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPORARELY WEAKEN...ISABEL COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND THEY ALL SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN...BRINGING THE CORE OF ISABEL PARALLEL AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IN FACT THE GFS...NO LONGER BRINGS ISABEL STRAIGHT WESTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GFDL...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR...HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. NOTE: ALL MODELS RE-DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE ISABEL WILL GET TO THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 21.3N 53.7W 125 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 21.4N 55.1W 125 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 21.7N 57.0W 125 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.0N 59.0W 120 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 24.0N 65.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 25.0N 69.0W 115 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 72.0W 115 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC