ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE EYE BECAME CLOUD-COVERED EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT...BECOME BETTER DEFINED ...AND EYEWALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO COOL. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. ISABEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...DESPITE MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTING A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT ISABEL IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA SHOULD ALLOW ISABEL TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD MOTION BY 24 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARP WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THESE MODELS...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS INDCIATED IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UKMET...HOWEVER...MODEL IS NOT FORECASTING THAT SOUTHWARD JOG. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE... ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF ISABEL ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THAT AREA. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS ALREADY A CAT 4 HURRICANE...SPECIFIC INTENSIFICATION WILL BE DICTATED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS LIKE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES THAT CAN NOT BE FORECAST WITH ANY SKILL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 19.6N 46.9W 115 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 20.1N 48.4W 120 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 20.3N 50.3W 125 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 20.2N 52.3W 120 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 19.9N 54.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 57.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 60.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.0N 64.5W 110 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC