ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HENRI IS INTERACTING WITH AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH COLD AIR ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING BURSTS OF CONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF THE BROAD CENTER...SO IT WILL REMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS...AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...AND MORE COLD AIR FORECAST TO ENTER THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HR...THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE IN 12-24 HR RATHER THAN CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST- NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE MOTION MAY SLOW EVEN MORE AFTER 36-48 HR AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 31.9N 76.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 32.5N 75.8W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/0000Z 33.6N 74.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 72.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 71.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 35.0N 69.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 35.0N 68.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 35.0N 67.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC