ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 HENRI CONTINUES TO HAVE A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT LOCATION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE FIXES AND A SHIP REPORT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...YET THE SHIPS MODEL INSISTS THAT HENRI CAN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE FACE OF THIS SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT HENRI MAY LOSE SOME...OR ALL...OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL ZONE. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 045/5. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HENRI'S EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL GET BLOCKED IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ACCORDINGLY THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF HENRI WILL BE LEFT BY THAT TIME HOWEVER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 31.6N 77.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 32.5N 76.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 33.5N 75.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 34.2N 73.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 34.6N 71.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 34.9N 69.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 35.0N 68.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 35.0N 68.0W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC