ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS A RATHER BROAD...NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM...ENOUGH BANDING TO SUPPORT CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE IN A FEW HOURS TO MAKE A MORE PRECISE DETERMINATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO STRONG SHEAR. INITIAL MOTION...050/8...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME...PARTICULARLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS HENRI DOWN BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 31.2N 78.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 77.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 33.2N 75.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 34.1N 74.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 34.8N 72.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 35.0N 70.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 35.0N 69.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 68.0W 25 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC