ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HENRI...AND SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT FOUND MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 30 KT...BUT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER YET. THE 30 KT ADVISORY WIND SPEED COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS AFTERNOON. HENRI IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVELY UNIFORM AND BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WEAKENS TO THE EAST SO THE CURRENT RAPID INITIAL MOTION... 060/16...SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI. HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS HENRI UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS. THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE MODEL-DIAGNOSED SHEAR OF 25 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 29.4N 79.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 30.4N 78.1W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 76.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 32.0N 75.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 32.5N 74.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 34.0N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC