Tropical Storm HENRI

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TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS...JUST BEFORE 12Z...INCLUDED
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB...850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 46
KT...AND A SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE OF 38 KT.  BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  SINCE
12Z...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE BECOME LESS
IMPRESSIVE.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND TIME...WILL LIMIT ANY
POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED LANDFALL OF THE
CENTER THIS EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/7.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN
ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. 
AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD
SPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER
AND NEAR THE COASTLINE.  MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE
FARTHER OFFSHORE.  THEREFORE...THE CLOSER HENRI TRACKS TO THE COAST
IN THE ATLANTIC...THE WEAKER IT IS EXPECTED TO BE.  THE GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AFTER 72 HOURS
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN 5 DAYS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 28.3N  83.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  82.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 29.6N  81.8W    35 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.7N  80.7W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 31.8N  79.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 33.5N  77.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 34.5N  74.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     10/1200Z 35.0N  72.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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