ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORTS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND SURFACE REPORTS...INDICATE THAT TD-12 HAS CHANGED LITTLE. TWO FLIGHTS THROUGH THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1004 AND 1005 MB. THEREFORE...TD-12 IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/06...BASED ON THE GENERAL TREND IN THE RECON AND SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. 05/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS ALREADY BEEN CAUGHT UP BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE AT LEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM THAT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACT TO TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...BUT A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER MAY BE THE START OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLY STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 27.7N 85.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 27.8N 84.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 28.3N 83.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 81.9W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 08/0000Z 32.0N 78.3W 40 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 34.0N 75.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 36.0N 71.5W 35 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC