Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression TWELVE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
DEPRESSION CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COAST...HOWEVER...
DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION.  AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND IN THIS POSITION IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT RAPID
STRENGTHENING.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/2.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN THE POOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION
CENTER AND THE CONVECTION.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR A SLOW EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...RIDGING
BEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET
SOLUTION. 

THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
STORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 27.9N  87.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.1N  86.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  85.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 28.9N  83.6W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 33.0N  77.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 35.0N  73.0W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC