ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION BELOW -50C NEAR THE CENTER OF FABIAN. IN ADDITION COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS APPEAR TO HAVE INFILTRATED THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE... THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS IN FULL-SWING OVER WATERS NEAR 15C. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT DUE TO A LATE-ARRIVING BUOY REPORT OF 70 KT AT 0700 UTC. FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN AS A LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BELOW 960 MB NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. LATE IN THE PERIOD...EXTRATROPICAL FABIAN SHOULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF GREENLAND. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LONG-LIVED HURRICANE FABIAN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 49.8N 39.2W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 09/0000Z 53.7N 34.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 58.0N 32.7W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 59.7N 35.2W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 58.7N 38.4W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 57.0N 41.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC