Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003
 
FABIAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND A 0008Z SSMI PASS
DEPICT AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB.  AFWA
AND SAB ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.
 
FABIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BENEATH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND OVER
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE
COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IT MAY
REMAIN AS A LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS
AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE
THAT FABIAN WILL INTERACT OR MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN 36
HOURS CREATING A CYCLONIC LOOPING MOTION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP
OF GREENLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND AGREES WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 47.7N  42.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 51.8N  37.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 56.9N  32.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 59.9N  31.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 61.5N  33.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 59.0N  39.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 56.5N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0600Z 55.5N  30.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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