Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003
 
FABIAN MAY BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  ALSO...THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
EXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70
KT.

FABIAN IS NOW WELL INTO THE WESTERLIES AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND IT SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
WITHIN 12-24 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS
A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HR.  DURING
THIS TIME...IT SHOULD MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE WATERS
SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. 
THANKS AGAIN TO OPC FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FORECAST POINTS AND
INTENSITIES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0300Z 45.3N  46.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 48.7N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 54.6N  33.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 58.6N  31.6W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 60.8N  32.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 60.0N  39.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 56.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z 55.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC