ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT A SMALL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR FABIAN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER A FRONTAL TAIL IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE ALONG WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST SIDE... SIGNS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS STARTING. FABIAN HAS LITTLE TIME LEFT AS A HURRICANE... NOW IN ITS NINTH CONSECUTIVE DAY. T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING AND WITH THE HURRICANE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM OVER COLD SSTS BELOW 21C... THE INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED TO ABOUT 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT FABIAN WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HURRICANE IS PRETTY MUCH ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... MOVING NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER... 045/27 KT. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS WEST AS PART OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS NEAR GREENLAND. THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A POWERFUL STORM CENTER WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS IS DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST BETWEEN A HIGH OVER GREENLAND...THE MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND THE CYCLONE. THANKS GO TO OPC FOR THEIR COLLABORATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL WIND RADII AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE CHANGE OF WIND AND 12 FOOT SEAS RADII WERE BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 43.4N 49.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 46.5N 44.5W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/1800Z 51.0N 38.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0600Z 56.0N 32.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1800Z 60.0N 33.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1800Z 60.5N 38.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 57.0N 37.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 55.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC