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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT A SMALL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
NEAR FABIAN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.  HOWEVER A
FRONTAL TAIL IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE ALONG
WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE... SIGNS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS STARTING.  FABIAN
HAS LITTLE TIME LEFT AS A HURRICANE... NOW IN ITS NINTH CONSECUTIVE
DAY.  T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING AND WITH THE HURRICANE NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM OVER COLD SSTS BELOW 21C... THE INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED TO ABOUT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT
WEAKENING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT FABIAN WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A
VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS PRETTY MUCH ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...
MOVING NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER... 045/27 KT.   FABIAN IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS WEST AS PART OF AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IN A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS NEAR
GREENLAND.  THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A POWERFUL
STORM CENTER WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.    THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT 72
HOURS IS DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST BETWEEN A HIGH OVER
GREENLAND...THE MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND THE CYCLONE.

THANKS GO TO OPC FOR THEIR COLLABORATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL WIND
RADII AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  THE CHANGE OF WIND AND 12 FOOT SEAS
RADII WERE BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 43.4N  49.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 46.5N  44.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  38.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 56.0N  32.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 60.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 60.5N  38.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 57.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     12/1800Z 55.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC