Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS RETAINED AN
EXCELLENT CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST RECON SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19
KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 36.5N  61.5W    95 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  58.8W    90 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  54.5W    80 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  49.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 47.5N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 52.5N  32.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/1200Z 57.5N  10.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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