Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
 
AN AIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 235/32 KTS ON THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BERMUDA.  SO THINGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE
FAIRLY QUICKLY.  

ALL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN
BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.
 
FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE 96 HOUR INTENSITY
REFLECTS THIS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 35.6N  63.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  61.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 40.1N  57.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 42.5N  52.7W    80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 44.8N  48.6W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 51.0N  40.9W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 58.2N  33.5W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z 62.1N  31.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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