ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 FABIAN IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE...USING A HAND HELD ANEMOMETER BECAUSE THE NORMAL WIND MEASURING EQUIPMENT WAS DESTROYED...WAS 50 TO 60 KTS. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT BERMUDA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE IT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS NICELY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF FABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 34.1N 64.1W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 36.2N 62.2W 95 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 38.6N 58.7W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 41.3N 54.7W 80 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 43.5N 49.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 48.0N 43.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0000Z 58.0N 33.0W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 59.4N 31.6W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC