ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 THE EYEWALL IS MOVING OVER BERMUDA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE. FABIAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 965.5 MB AND GUSTS TO 102 KNOTS AND HOUR AGO AND ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115 KNOTS AT 1955Z. THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM BERMUDA HARBOR RADIO OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 102 KNOTS BEFORE THE 250 FOOT TALL INSTRUMENTED MAST BLEW DOWN. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT BERMUDA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE IT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF FABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 65.1W 105 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 34.8N 64.0W 100 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 37.0N 61.0W 90 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 39.5N 57.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 42.5N 52.5W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1800Z 52.0N 38.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1800Z 59.0N 15.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z 56.0N 17.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC