ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS LARGE AND ELONGATED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 BUT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 118 KNOTS. THIS DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEN SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ANDTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. FABIAN IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. FABIAN INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROJECTED TRACK BRINGS THE EAST EYEWALL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. FABIAN IS READY TO RECURVE AND IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BERMUDA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS AND THE WEATHER SHOULD GRADUALLY WORSEN. BERMUDA OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS HAVE IMPLEMENTED THEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND AT THIS TIME...WE CAN ONLY HOPE FOR THE BEST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 30.8N 65.4W 105 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 65.0W 105 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 35.5N 63.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 37.5N 60.0W 90 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 40.0N 56.0W 80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 54.0N 31.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 60.0N 10.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC