ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TODAY AS THE UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEAKENS. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING SOME UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE WEST OF FABIAN 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL MEASURE THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY. SINCE FABIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS A SEVERE HURRICANE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE EYE OF THIS HURRICANE. FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 25.2N 64.0W 105 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 26.8N 64.8W 110 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 65.4W 110 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 32.5N 65.0W 110 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 41.0N 56.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 49.0N 42.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/1200Z 56.0N 26.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC