Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE EYE
SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER
ESTABLISHED TODAY AS THE UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
WEAKENS. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING SOME UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE WEST
OF FABIAN 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL MEASURE THE INTENSITY LATER
TODAY. SINCE FABIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND
WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY
OCCUR.
 
THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY
DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  FABIAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS A SEVERE HURRICANE
AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
EYE OF THIS HURRICANE. FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 25.2N  64.0W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 26.8N  64.8W   110 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  65.4W   110 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  65.0W   110 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  63.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  56.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 49.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     09/1200Z 56.0N  26.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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