ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003 THE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON VISIBLE IMAGES WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 944 MB IN THE LAST RECON FIX. HOWEVER... T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER AND THE MAX WINDS MEASURED SO FAR BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE TWO NOAA P3 INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FABIAN HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE SHEAR DECREASES ONCE THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FABIAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK FORECAST. FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN WHICH FAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 22.9N 62.9W 105 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 24.0N 64.2W 105 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 65.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 66.5W 115 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 115 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 37.0N 63.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 45.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1800Z 55.0N 37.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC