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Hurricane FABIAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS
STILL WELL DEFINED AND 
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT PRESENT
ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SHEAR BUT IS FAIR ELSEWHERE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 115 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS FABIAN THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER THE
WINDS.  CURRENTLY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
HEADING FOR FABIAN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICLONE. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS INDICATED BY
THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT
FABIAN WILL BEGIN A NEW CYCLE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM.
 
FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
FABIAN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
READY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN WHICH
FAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS THEN
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 22.4N  62.7W   115 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  63.5W   115 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  65.0W   110 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W   105 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  66.5W   100 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  65.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 39.5N  60.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 48.5N  48.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC