ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003 DATA FROM THE MOST RECENT MISSION OF THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...BUT MAY HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 123 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...CORRESPONDING TO BORDERLINE CAT. 3/4 INTENSITY. THE CURRENT MAX WINDS ARE HELD AT 115 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT IT HAS AN ELLIPTICAL SHAPE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE FABIAN REACHES COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOW TO BE BIASED TOWARD CREATING TOO MUCH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER SLOW...310/7...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN HAS BEEN WEAKENING. HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS WOULD BRING FABIAN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN 48-72 HOURS. THEREFORE RESIDENTS IN THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 21.6N 62.2W 115 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 22.4N 63.0W 115 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 24.0N 64.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 25.8N 65.5W 105 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 66.3W 100 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 39.0N 61.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 48.0N 51.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC