ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003 A NOAA P-3 RECON AIRCRAFT MADE AN EYE PENETRATION AROUND 02/2221Z AS PART OF THE CBLAST RESEARCH PROJECT AND FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 125 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALSO WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE...AND AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 72 HOURS AND ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS FABIAN TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATER PERIODS. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY BY 96 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FABIAN. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 21.1N 61.6W 115 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 22.0N 62.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 23.4N 63.9W 110 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 65.1W 105 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 27.2N 66.0W 105 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 32.0N 66.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 39.0N 62.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC