ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003 ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 102-115 KT...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 130 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...WHICH STILL SUPPORTS 115-120 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE LAST EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE WAS 945 MB. TWO NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN FABIAN...AND REPORTED 105 KT AT THE SURFACE FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR... INSTRUMENT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAVE NOT SAMPLED THE STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT...YET. INTERESTINGLY... THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSTANT FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE CORE AND OUTER CIRCULATION. THE EYE DIAMETER TODAY IS ABOUT 30 NM...COMPARED TO 20 NM YESTERDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT FABIAN MAY HAVE SOME INTENSIFICATION LEFT IN IT IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SUCH EYEWALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOWEVER...WHICH CALLS FOR LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS EXPECTED...THE STORM HEADING CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OVER THE PAST TWO OR THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...A COMBINATION THAT CONTINUES TO PERFORM EXCEPTIONALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST ERRORS AT THE LONGER RANGES COULD BE QUITE LARGE. ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FABIAN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.7N 61.1W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 21.4N 62.3W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 22.7N 63.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 24.1N 64.7W 115 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 26.0N 66.0W 110 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 67.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 38.0N 64.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 46.0N 56.0W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC