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Hurricane FABIAN (Text)

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FABIAN
SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX AT 01/1917Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 125 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. THIS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL
MODELS HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB SO FAR WITH FABIAN...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 
HOURS OR SO...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SINCE FABIAN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS OF AROUND 29C AND UNDER
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME FASTER WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS
WHEN SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 24C.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 19.4N  58.6W   125 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.8N  60.1W   125 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.8N  62.1W   125 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 22.1N  63.6W   120 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  64.7W   115 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  67.2W   105 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  68.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 40.5N  67.0W    85 KT
 
 
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